POLITICAL EXPERTS:
“We are willing that the veil of oblivion will be dropped over the President’s silly remarks and they will be no more repeated or thought of.” – The Patriot News 1863 (on the Gettysburg Address)
COMMUNICATIONS EXPERTS:
“Well-informed people know that it is impossible to transmit the human voice over wires, as may be done with dots and dashes of Morse code, and that were it possible the thing would be of no practical value.” – 1865 Boston Newspaper
“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys,” – Sir William Preece, chief engineer of the Post Office 1876.
MEDIA EXPERTS:
“The problem with television is that people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen. The average American family hasn’t time for it, it will never be a serious competitor to radio broadcasting.” – The New York Times 1939 .
“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” – Harry Warner, co-founder of Warner Brothers, 1927
TRANSPORT EXPERTS:
“What can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out of locomotives travelling twice as fast as stagecoaches?” – Quarterly Review 1825.
“The ordinary “horseless carriage” is at present a luxury for the wealthy; and although its price will probably fall in the future, it will never, of course, come into as common use as the bicycle.” – Literary Digest 1899
“With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market.”– Business Week 1968
MUSIC EXPERTS:
“Rock and Roll will be gone by June.” – Variety 1955
“We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.” – Decca Records (turning down the Beatles) 1962
DIGITAL EXPERTS:
“Online shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop, because women like to get out of the house, like to handle merchandise, like to be able to change their minds.” – Time 1966
“I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” – Robert Metcalfe (inventor of Ethernet) InfoWorld 1995
SPACE EXPERTS:
“A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” – The New York Times 1936.
ATOMIC EXPERTS:
“Few scientists foresee any serious or practical use for atomic energy.” Fortune – 1938
HEALTH EXPERTS:
“If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one.” National Cancer Society – 1954
Hi Dave, great collection of failed predictions 🙂 I wonder if this means you should pick your ‘expert’ wisely or just choose carefully what to take away from what they say? A bit of both I imagine. And, hopefully for every “the internet will fail” style-prediction, these guys had 20 that actually came to pass. I suppose they must, otherwise we wouldn’t know of them or their publications. It’s not like my mate Steve is listed here for his classic, “no one needs internet faster than 56kbps” – but most everything he says is wrong 😉
Hi Will,
I meant it in the spirit of Jonathan Swift’s quote:
“You may always recognize a man of genius for he has a confederacy of dunces ranged against him”.
Nobel Prize and Albert Einstein Award winning physicist Richard Feynman: “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”
I hope that’s a typo in your Time thumbs down of internet shopping. If they were saying that in 1966, they deserve a medal just for inventing the word “online.”
Then again some predictions ring true.
“Clay comes out to meet Liston and Liston starts to retreat,
if Liston goes back an inch farther he’ll end up in a ringside seat.
Clay swings with his left, Clay swings with his right,
Look at young Cassius carry the fight
Liston keeps backing, but there’s not enough room,
It’s a matter of time till Clay lowers the boom.
Now Clay lands with a right, what a beautiful swing,
And the punch raises the Bear clean out of the ring.
Liston is still rising and the ref wears a frown,
For he can’t start counting till Sonny goes down.
Now Liston is disappearing from view, the crowd is going frantic,
But radar stations have picked him up, somewhere over the Atlantic.
Who would have thought when they came to the fight?
That they’d witness the launching of a human satellite.
Yes the crowd did not dream, when they put up the money,
That they would see a total eclipse of the Sonny.”
John,
Absolute genius.
I always quote that but I could only remember lines 7 – 14.
Thanks for putting the whole thing up.
Did some digging. That Time quote was about “remote shopping” but it’s often cited now as “remote shopping (online shopping).” Remote shopping (then) was buying things from a catalog. Yeah, that was almost as big a flop as online shopping!
Thanks Mark.
My quote must have been paraphrased.
Dave,
As you probably have guessed by now,
I love facts.
Hard rock-soild facts.
Who could predict that between 1960 and 2010
the world population would double?
or that
Cellphone sales today
would outnumber TV sales by a ratio of 10:1?
or that this year
$10,316,000,000
…and counting…
will be spent on Cigarettes while
$384,309,027,479
…and counting…
will be spent on drugs worldwide this year alone.
Apparently it seems
our American cousins spend
twice as much (2.1bn USD) per year
on getting obese related diseases
than they do on weight loss.
The scores read:
Drugs 38, Fags1.
Fat 2, Slim 1.
Oh,… and Bikes 2 Cars 1.
It seems global Bicycle sales are amazingly
bouyant and outnumbering car sales by a ratio of 2:1 globally.
However, in the spirit of what you have written
rather than taking things verbatim,
I honestly don’t think anyone could have predicted that one either!
If we take research verbatim,
It seems the only way out is:-
For every cigarette you smoke, take 38 drugs.
But if you ride a bike twice as much as you drive your car
you’ll only be twice as fat as you could have been.
Love those numbers Kev, I’ll use them if they’re all true?
Great stuff, Kev,
Seasoned gratings to you and yours.
They were absolutely true at the time they were published. Ha!
17 Dec 2013 6.56 pm Lol!