When we first started GGT there were only 4 of us.
Me, Mike Gold, Mike Greenlees, and Goldie’s French secretary, Michelle.
Michelle was elegant and haughty in that French way.
Our tiny office was on the top floor of an old fashioned block in Jermyn Street.
There was no lift, just five floors of stairs to walk up.
The only other occupant was a diamond merchant on the floor below us.
His entrance was just a wooden door with a glass panel.
One day, the two Mike’s had gone out to see a prospective client and I was working in the office alone.
Michelle came back from lunch, haughty and aloof as usual.
In her strong French accent she said “Some people are really stupid? Pah”
I asked her what happened.
She said “The stupid man on the floor below. He is wearing a scarf and making eyes at me through the door. He thinks he is so funny trying to pick me up. Pah, I ignore him.”
I didn’t really follow her, but it sounded like the bloke below was wearing a scarf and making eyes at her.
It seemed strange, but it didn’t seem a problem so I ignored it.
About an hour or so later I heard a commotion and sirens on the street below.
I looked out the window and sure enough there were police cars in Jermyn Street and policemen rushing into our building.
It turned out the diamond merchant below us had been robbed.
They’d tied him to a chair and gagged him and emptied the safe.
After they left, he managed to drag the chair over to the door with the glass panel.
Just as Michelle was passing the door.
He saw her and tried to catch her attention, she saw the man gagged and grunting and rolling his eyes.
Except she didn’t, she saw what she expected to see.
What Michelle saw was a man trying to get her attention in order to pick her up.
Disguised with a scarf and rolling his eyes and making obscene grunting noises.
He was obviously some sort of pervert.
So, in her haughty French way, she ignored him and carried on up the stairs to our office.
Several hours later he managed to drag the chair across to the phone and dial 999, which was when the police turned up to release him.
He wasn’t a sex pest, he was trying to ask her to help.
But that wasn’t what Michelle saw.
We interpret everything through our preconceptions, it’s called Confirmation Bias.
Michelle was French, and consequently expected strange men who spoke to her to be trying to pick her up.
That was how she would interpret any approach.
She was doing what all of us do.
We actually form an opinion before we’ve heard the evidence, and the evidence is just reinforcement for that view.
It doesn’t provide any new information, it doesn’t change our view.
We aren’t even listening for new information, we’re only listening for confirmation.
The only purpose for talking is to change the other person’s mind, not to change our own.
Because being open to change is seen as weakness.
And changing our mind is always seen is seen as being fickle.
Instead of being open minded.
That’s why I prefer the reply that economist J M Keynes gave, when he was accused of changing his mind.
He said “Certainly when the facts change I change my mind. Why sir, what do you do?”
“Michelle was French, and consequently expected strange men who spoke to her to be trying to pick her up.” – some confirmation bias of your own?
Fair point Martin
So many variables, so many unknown facts.
We are always in some form of confirmation bias until more facts present itself.
Constantly anticipate, and extrapolate based on the current circumstances to stay ahead of the game.
To change only when the facts change can be a bit too late.
People don’t like to think Dave. They would much rather accept someone else’s opinion that may be aligned with their own. About a year ago I was walking through Moscow with my wife when I noticed a couple smooching in the corner. As we passed, I thought, “That’s a bit of a dark corner to be snogging in?” It suddenly occurred to me that what I was seeing was an attempt at rape as the girl was trying to push of his advances. I had told my wife twice and she ignored me. When I stopped and walked back, she came with me and suddenly realised. she said something, I swore at the bloke in English loudly and he left. The girl thanked us. We never know how we will react in a situation like this. I am no hero. Years ago, I was sitting on the train as it approached London Bridge. Everyone used to open the door early. This morning, some guy opened the door early and the wind caught it ad it swung out of his hands. it hit several people on the platform. I sat there stunned, as did everybody else. I watched him calmly get off the train and disappear into the crowd before any of us registered what had happened. Then it was too late. He had gone and I became angry with myself that I had seen everything and done nothing. I like the phrase contempt prior to investigation. There is so much rubbish in the press these days, no wonder ads don’t pull any more. I wonder, is it sheer chance that some nut case in America has gone on the rampage recently, killing 26 people at the same time that the Kennedy Papers have been released, naming the true culprits or is it more than a coincidence? How is it, I find out more about what is really going on in the world by following You Tube and all the small independent News Agencies than I do by following the multinationals. There are some big stories that are far fetched and other big stories which are very clear, but only you can decide which are true and which are false. There are some incredible stories out there, but people prefer to be spoon-fed rather than find out for themselves. That’s why I believe 90% of the world is living in denial. They just don’t want to face reality or the truth because it makes them feel uncomfortable, but when push comes to shove they will only have themselves to blame. Personally, I prefer to know what is going on in our world now rather than 50 years later, and 50 years ago many would have liked to have known the truth that has just been released now. It’s disgraceful.
Example 1.Denial. Case in Hand. Campaign ‘Breaking News’ Paddington Bear and Angela Rippon Christmas Campaign hits the Headlines? WTF
Occam’s Razor would seem a better fit for what happened.
What are the odds a pretty young woman would witness a bound and gagged crime victim as opposed to being ogled?
Confirmation bias is when your brain overrides facts to impose false conclusions based on faulty observations reinforced by wishful thinking. Based on her observations, the secretary’s conclusions were understandable.
You’re also overlooking the real danger in confirmation bias. The certainty of understanding is based on actual knowledge. For example, right now in the US many media consumers expected Trump to be rejected in yesterday’s elections based on polls. The results suggest he was. That’s confirmation bias from people fed their news by experts expecting him to be rejected.
The actual facts are the Democrats are in utter disarray, and managed a few wins despite picking lousy candidates and running flawed strategies. That won’t stop the DNC from crowing about their victories. Winning confirms their beliefs, even when they win despite them.
This is the tragedy of a two party system. When one party loses, the other is convinced that means they’re in the right even though the voters aren’t being given real choices. Nestlés vs Hershey is meaningless if you exclude Cadbury, Mars, Ferrero, Meiji, etc. from your ballot.
Dave
My wife bought ‘Predatory Thinking’ for me a couple of years ago. I run my own business and have done for the last 6 years.
It’s a restaurant.
During that time I’ve made many enormous mistakes.
Not mistakes with customers – they love what we do.
But in business I’ve come close to failure many times.
I remember March 31st 2013.
We sent everyone home and waited for the bailiff to arrive.
My wife and I, in our 40’s, two kids, about to lose it all.
We sat in our empty restaurant – just the two of us.
A death sentence.
Waiting.
We started again.
We were better at it. We’d learned. We were better and now we are about to open a new restaurant with massive outside investment.
I’ve always told everyone I worked with to read ‘Predatory Thinking’ and ‘The Art of War’.
A brilliant combination.
I have always held you in the highest esteem.
Then my wife bought me One+One=Three
She was bursting with joy that she’d found another book by Dave Trott.
The smile on her face when she gave it to me was enormous.
I don’t have the heart to tell her that the first 3 stories are a re-telling of stories in ‘Predatory Thinking’. Is it all like that? I don’t want to read on in case it is.
Do you remember when Dorothy pulls the curtain back on the great Oz? I’m not suggesting anything is fake, but the disappointment… Oh the disappointment.
Going to a restaurant twice and having the same dish is not the same as buying two books by the same person and reading the same thing.
Sorry Mike, no Michelin stars for me.
Let me know your address and I’ll refund the cost.